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3) Prediction: The United Nations Proposes a Cyber Security Treaty

Description:

In 2019, the United Nations will address the issue of state-sponsored cyber attacks by enacting a
multinational Cyber Security Treaty.

There are many examples of alleged and confirmed cyber attacks launched by nation-states. The U.S.
and Israel allegedly launched the Stuxnet attack. The Russian government has been accused of
everything from DDoS attacks against Estonia and turning off the power in Ukraine to election and political
hacking in the United States. North Korea, meanwhile, has allegedly attacked public and civilian
organizations and infrastructure, targeted Sony Pictures and ostensibly caused billions in damage in the
WannaCry attack. Many governments have blamed China for various cyber attacks focused on
intellectual property, but the most recent “straw on the camel’s back” is the Supermicro supply-chain
attack, where the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been accused of sneaking backdoors into servers
sent around the world (though many dispute this story). These alleged attacks cost billions in damages
and put supply chains responsible for 90 percent of computing devices at risk, showing that cyber attacks
often cause enormous economic damage outside of their intended targets.

The growing number of civilian victims impacted by these attacks will cause the UN to more aggressively
pursue a multinational cyber security treaty that establishes rules of engagement and impactful
consequences around nation-state cyber campaigns. They have talked and argued about this topic in
the past, but the most recent incidents – as well as new ones sure to surface in 2019 – will finally force
the UN to come to some consensus.

4) Prediction: A Nation-State Launches a “Fire Sale” Attack

Description:

You may remember the fictional concept of a “fire sale” attack from the 4 Die Hard movie, in which a
th
terrorist group planned a coordinated cyber attack against U.S. transportation, financial, and public
utilities and communication systems. The terrorists meant to use the fear and confusion caused by the
attack to siphon off huge sums of money and disappear without a trace. In 2019, we will see a version of
this fictional attack become a reality.

As unlikely as this attack might have seemed in the late 2000s, many modern cyber security incidents
suggest that nation-states and terrorist have developed these capabilities. Cyber criminals and nation-

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