Page 89 - Cyber Defense eMagazine January 2024

Another reason why threats keep growing is related to how threat actors evolve their capabilities. Threat
actors are good at advancing their capabilities because they operate as a syndicate. The level of
information sharing in the "threat community" is far higher than what we have on the defense side. Why?
Threat actors do not have concerns about legal implications, mandates, privacy or IP protection. If sharing
information makes sense for them to achieve their goal, they will do it, regardless of the implications.

Threat actors also advance their capabilities to counteract the evolution of defense practices, but they
don't necessarily need to produce more advanced attack techniques. They need to produce more
effective techniques. If there's low hanging fruit, they will go for it; no need for a high tech alternative
when simple and manual will do it. They optimize towards their final objective, not towards a specific path
to it. If they want to make money, they can move from trying to steal it directly from bank accounts to
simple extortion when that produces more money at a lower cost. They don't need to evolve to break all
the barriers put up by defenders around those bank accounts if there is a cheaper and more efficient
manner to get money.

Because of all points above, the threat community acquires a certain evolutionary, Darwinian aspect.
Just as species will not necessarily evolve towards better, advanced eyesight, speed and strength to
survive, threat actors may not produce more advanced TTPs either: They just need to survive - or, in
their context, achieve their objectives. While objectives are easily reachable, no evolution is necessary.

Finally, the potential outcome of threat activity is also something that grows continually. Cyber-attacks
are one of the ways criminals can perform financial fraud, for example. If there is more money circulating,
it will attract more criminal activity, and criminal activity these days is one of the major drivers behind
cyberthreats. There are more potential targets, as the world becomes increasingly connected. It is natural
to see more attempts to cause harm online when there are more things that can be harmed that way.

The ability of threat actors to evolve their practices, more and bigger targets available, combined with
how limited the target organizations are in affecting threat presence or intensity are clear explanations
about why it is so easy to predict that threats will keep growing. So don’t be surprised if you see it, but
also there is no need for defeatism. Common criminal activity has been around for years, but it doesn’t
mean that our law enforcement does not work. Threats, just like crime, are part of our existence in the
connected world. We must do as much as possible to keep the risk of suffering from those threats under
control, but at the same time, keep in mind that it will be a continuous effort that will never reach a point
where the problem is “solved”.

Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2024 Edition 89
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