Page 88 - Cyber Defense eMagazine January 2024

Evolution and Escalation of Cybersecurity

Threats

The Darwinian Effect in the Threat Community

By Augusto Barros, Vice President Cyber Security Evangelist at Securonix

Among the typical predictions for the upcoming new year, we often see something like “threats will keep
growing.” A prediction like this is like saying there will be some rainy days next year, or that some place
in the world will suffer from drought. But with all the investment we do in security, why do we keep seeing
threats growing?

First, it is important to understand the nature of threats. Threat existence and intensity is mostly
independent from an organization’s security effort. Those efforts can reduce the risk from a threat causing
harm, but they won’t reduce the threat itself. Sometimes, if a large portion of the potential targets
implement a certain control, that “herd immunity” can affect the overall threat intensity: If there are no
chances to be successful with a certain approach, threat actors are likely to abandon that approach to
try something else.

Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2024 Edition 88
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