Page 90 - Cyber Defense eMagazine January 2023

into 2023. The year began hopeful with several organizations reporting fewer ransomware incidents in
the first half of 2022 compared to 2021. Instead of fewer ransomware incidents occurring though, it may
be that we saw fewer reported due to the shift in tactics used by many ransomware operators from
targeting enterprises and major multinationals to smaller organizations that may not have a robust threat
defense practice and therefore are less likely to report incidents, and/or don’t get the same level of media
coverage as larger organizations when attacks do occur.

And—in a trend that's been rising for years and shows no signs of slowing—these attacks are increasingly
identity-based, with business email compromise making up a significant proportion of breaches.

Defending against these trends, we can expect to see governments and the private sector at large
growing more serious about holistic and standardized defense approaches, such as following NIST
guidelines. From a security product perspective, we have already started seeing a trend toward
consolidation of solutions. Less point products, more automation with tightly integrated platforms and
solutions. Efforts like Zero Trust Architectures and continuous validation and verification will be the name
of the game in 2023 as MSPs and others get increasingly serious about the scale and intensity of the
threat they're facing on a minute-by-minute basis.

The statistics bear this out: 78% of business leaders say their organization is set to increase investment
in cybersecurity in the next 12 months, according to research findings of the 2022 Vanson Bourne Report.
Meanwhile, the SMB market is predicted to spend much more on cyber detection, response, and
automation next year, according to the 2022 ConnectWise MSP Threat Report.

Given the increased sophistication and motivation of attackers, the ever need for integrated cyber
solutions, and constantly changing external drivers (technology changes, regulatory mandates, talent
shortage, etc.), we expect to see the service business grow in popularity. SOC (and also NOC) services
will help MSPs scale their businesses by eliminating repetitive and unprofitable tasks, so that the MSP
can focus on high-value, high ROI activities.

Steve Moore, Vice President, and Chief Security Strategist, Exabeam

"The greatest observable trend to note as we move into 2023, is the increased use of credentials in
cyberattacks, for both initial and persistent access. Currently, more than half of all attacks happen through
stolen credentials. This number will increase for initial access, and go higher still for persistent access.

Adversaries are experiencing continued success without using malware to gain access and sign-in. From
there, they are able to use internal credentials and tools against the defender.

Additionally, with geopolitical changes in the world, we will see an uptick in individual businesses falling
victim to nation-state attacks. We can expect the lines to blur between espionage and criminal activity,
as information and attack techniques are shared. Loyalists to certain nations will continue to offer
cooperation to these international hacking efforts.

Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2023 Edition 90
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