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Mandab Strait, in Pakistan for an easy reach to the Ormuz Strait, or in Myanmar’s Coco Islands for quicker
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access to the Strait of Malacca, the soon-to-be busiest waterway in the world . Thus, it comes with no
surprise that Beijing is developing a power projection capability with blue-water navy maritime force to
protect the flow of raw materials and merchandises.

The New Regional Hegemon

The current US uncertainty towards Northeast and Southeast Asia is a great opportunity for China, which
has been more hawkish in the last few years. Beijing invested massively to create a modern and flexible
army; the military budget doubled in 10 years, the first aircraft carrier is now deployed (with a second one
under construction), and next-generation aircrafts are almost ready. All these efforts are possible thanks
to cyber attacks and retro engineering prowess and enables power projection to support an Anti-
Access/Area Denial tactic [A2/AD] to protect its activities in the South China Sea (aka the Nine-Dash
Line).

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) uses a mix of traditional (money) and cyber means (threat) to
pressurize neighbors and protect its “strategic belt” (i.e. its coast, where most economic activities occur).
In South East China, after a decade of cordial relations with some states through generous economic,
commercial, infrastructural and cultural programs, the PRC shifted its approach and started to “flex its
muscles”. In Malaysia, the President is concerned about debt issue and cancelled a $22 billion worth
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project, such as the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), which is part of China’s BRI. In the Philippines, the
hard talk round seems to be over and both countries are trying to resolve their maritime disputes; a
meeting is schedule before the end of the year between both leaders. Furthermore, long-established
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allies of China, like Myanmar and Vietnam, are becoming more suspicious; a Chinese-backed dam
project in Myanmar is at risk and in 2017, Vietnamese banks and airports were hacked allegedly by
Chinese state-sponsored groups.
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Nevertheless, the lack of unity and capacity in the ASEAN will not stop China. ASEAN states can only
sustain a low to medium intensity “gunboat diplomacy” even if the US deployed, to guarantee freedom of
navigation, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier, in addition to the permanent carrier that belongs to
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the Navy’s 7 Fleet based in Japan (USS Carl Vinson).

10 HUANG Kristin. “Chinese defence adviser says Djibouti naval facility is a much-needed military base”, South China Morning Post, May 13, 2017
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2094194/chinese-defence-adviser-says-djibouti-naval-facility
11 MA Alexander. “Malaysia stood up to China’s demands to hand over its persecuted Muslim prisoners, and Beijing is furious”, Business Insider, Oct 12,
2018
12 HEYDARIAN Richard, “Major Hurdles – and rewards – as China and Philippines try to forge deal to share South China Sea resources”, South China
Morning Post, Sept 22, 2018
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2165237/major-hurdles-and-rewards-china-and-philippines-try-forge-deal
13 LIVES Mike. “A Chinese-Backed Dam Project Leaves Myanmar in a Bind”, The New York Times, Mar 31, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/asia/myanmar-china-myitsone-dam-project.html

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