Page 90 - Cyber Defense eMagazine for July 2020

Future Tensions at Sea

Among many strategic hotspots, the most sensitive ones are currently the Indian Ocean, the South and
East China Seas, and, for the foreseeable future, the Artic.

The Indian Ocean is now a space of geopolitical criticality from a maritime perspective, especially now
that the U.S. wants to improve its relations with New Delhi to counterbalance Beijing’s aspirations in the
context of the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative). China is determined to change the status quo in this region
and is investing in ports (i.e. the String of Pearls) to control the flow of merchandise along sea lines from
China to the Middle East and Africa.

Indeed, these sea lines through the Indian Ocean are vital for China’s oil imports, as about 40% comes
through the Strait of Hormuz and over 80% through the Malacca Strait.20 Thus, the rationale of shifting
from a land-based armed force to a sea-based one is to defend these interests at sea and protect China
as a regional hegemon. Hence, the people’s liberation army is building aircraft carriers, submarines,
patrol vessels, and has put in place an A2/AD (Anti Access/Area Denial) tactic with investments on shore-
based anti-ship missiles. Ultimately, China wants to push the U.S. behind its second island chains (at the
east side of the Philippine Sea).

As pointed out by The Economist, the Asia Pacific is the trade region of the future: Eight out of the world’s
ten busiest container ports are there. Two-thirds of the world’s oil shipments travel across the Indian
Ocean. Almost 30% of maritime trade goes across the South China Sea; it accounts for over 10% of
world fisheries production and is thought to have oil and natural-gas deposits beneath its seabed.21

Another strategic hotspot will emerge northward: the Arctic. Within decades, the ice melting phenomenon
will open shipping lanes, allowing vessels like Russia’s first ice class LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) tanker
to travel through the region. It will also increase disputes for the access to resources and to preserve its
fragile ecosystem.22

Like in Rudyard Kipling’s novel “Kim” where he made popular the great game at stake between the British
and Russian empires to control Central Asia in the 19th Century, the new great game is now between
the US and China for the control of all Asia. This rivalry will encompass the use and leverage of sea
power as naval strategist Alfred T. Mahan put in perspective in “The Influence of Sea Power Upon History”
as national prosperity and power depend on the control of world's sea-lanes, thus: "Whoever rules the
waves rules the world".23

20 The Economist. “Who rules the waves?”, The Economist, Oct 17, 2015
https://www.economist.com/news/international/21674648-china-no-longer-accepts-america-should-be-asia-pacifics-dominant-naval-power-who-rules
21 The Economist. “Who rules the waves?”, The Economist, Oct 17, 2015
https://www.economist.com/news/international/21674648-china-no-longer-accepts-america-should-be-asia-pacifics-dominant-naval-power-who-rules
22 Author interviews. “‘Stavridis’ Book ‘Sea Power’ Explains Why Oceans Matter in Global Politics”, NPR, Jun 6, 2017
http://www.npr.org/2017/06/06/531701056/stavridis-book-sea-power-explains-why-oceans-matter-in-global-politics
23 MAHAN Alfred Thayer, “The Influence of Sea Power upon History: 1660-1783” Little, Brown and Company, Boston, 1890

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