Page 46 - Cyber Warnings

ABI Research Anticipates U.S. EMV Payment Card Shipments to

Peak in 2016 at Approximately 617 Million Units

EMV Smart Payment Migration in the U.S. and China Continues to Exceed Expectations as
Leading Industry Players Wonder if Continual Growth Will be Sustainable

Dateline City: London Release Date: 2016.01.25

Contact Info: Christine Gallen Tel: +44.203.326.0142

[email protected]

The last 12 months proved another positive year for the EMV smart payment cards standard,
initially created by Europay, MasterCard and Visa. In 2015, EMV card issuance in the U.S
exceeded original industry expectations, hitting nearly 600 million units, while China showed
continued success, achieving record shipments near the 850 million mark.

The two countries led significant worldwide market growth, accounting for 53% of the more than
2.6 billion total EMV cards shipped in 2015, according to ABI Research, the leader in
transformative technology innovation market intelligence. But how long can growth continue to
climb?

“EMV migration in the U.S. ramped up quickly, with market penetration likely to hit close to
100% over the next two years,” says Phil Sealy, Senior Analyst at ABI Research. “Due to
migration speed, a U.S. market dip is expected.

Vendors such as Gemalto, Oberthur Technologies, Infineon and NXP are aiming to identify
when this scenario might hit to plan accordingly.

Our findings show that U.S. EMV shipments will peak in 2016 and reach approximately 617
million units. In 2017, shipments are forecast to dip by approximately 5% with later shipments
likely to settle within the 600 and 615 million range.”
Despite the anticipated market dip in the U.S., ABI Research forecasts the worldwide market to
continue to follow a growth trajectory. Worldwide growth will primarily be driven by EMV
migration programs on the horizon, such as those in Indonesia and India.

Beyond the short-term U.S. dip, additional opportunities in the U.S. are presenting themselves
due to the market’s large installed base of mag-stripe Private Label Credit Cards (PLCCs) and
next-generation migration plans surrounding contactless issuance.

U.S. PLCC migration may provide a growth boost from a volume perspective and help growth in
an otherwise flattening market, but it seems to be the local issuer’s plans around contactless
migration that has major vendors most interested.

46 Cyber Warnings E-Magazine – February 2016 Edition
Copyright © Cyber Defense Magazine, All rights reserved worldwide