Having served on the MITRE.org CVE (OVAL) advisory board, I have spent years analyzing vulnerabilities and how they impact global cybersecurity. The challenge has always been prioritization—how do we determine which threats are most critical before they are exploited? Traditional vulnerability scoring systems, while useful, often fail to provide the necessary context for real-world threat mitigation. That’s why I’m so impressed with the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS), an initiative by FIRST.org designed to bring predictive analytics into vulnerability management.
Many thanks go to CISO Bob Steron of Interactions for pointing out EPSS to me and our readers.
The Evolution of Cyber Threat Intelligence
Cybersecurity professionals are inundated with vulnerabilities daily. The Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) database continues to grow, but security teams often struggle to distinguish between theoretical risks and active threats. Traditional models, such as the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), focus on severity but lack the predictive power to determine the likelihood of exploitation. This is where EPSS stands apart.
EPSS leverages machine learning and real-world threat intelligence to assess the probability that a given vulnerability will be exploited in the wild. Instead of reacting to every vulnerability with the same level of urgency, organizations can now prioritize based on empirical data, ensuring that the most dangerous threats are mitigated first.
EPSS: The Evolution of Threat Prioritization
Developed by FIRST.org, EPSS provides security professionals with an evidence-based, machine-learning-driven approach to assessing which vulnerabilities are most likely to be exploited in the wild. Unlike CVSS, which assigns a static severity score based on technical impact, EPSS leverages threat intelligence, exploit activity, and real-world attack data to predict the likelihood of exploitation in the next 30 days.
This predictive capability is a game-changer for CISOs, vulnerability managers, and SOC analysts. Rather than being buried under a flood of theoretical risks, security teams can now focus on high-probability threats that are actively being weaponized.
Why EPSS Matters More Than Ever
As cybercriminals adopt automation, AI-driven attacks, and zero-day exploits, security teams must work smarter, not harder. The benefits of EPSS include:
- Prioritization Based on Actual Risk
- Reality Check: Over 90% of CVEs are never exploited in the wild.
- EPSS helps security teams focus on the 2-5% of vulnerabilities that pose real danger.
- Adaptive & Real-Time Intelligence
- EPSS updates daily based on evolving exploit trends, making it far more dynamic than CVSS.
- Security teams gain continuous insights into changing attack patterns.
- Proactive Defense & Cost Savings
- EPSS-driven prioritization helps reduce mean time to remediation (MTTR) and optimize patching resources.
- Organizations avoid wasting time and money on patching vulnerabilities that aren’t actively exploited.
EPSS in Action: A Tactical Shift in Cyber Defense
Traditional risk management frameworks (NIST, ISO, CIS Controls) are evolving to integrate real-time exploitability data. EPSS aligns perfectly with risk-based vulnerability management (RBVM) strategies, empowering organizations to:
✔ Automate risk-based patching strategies
✔ Improve SOC efficiency by reducing alert fatigue
✔ Strengthen cyber resilience against active threats
The Future: Integrating EPSS into Every Cyber Defense Strategy
In my years advising global organizations on cyber resilience, I’ve seen firsthand the urgent need for predictive security models. EPSS is not just an improvement—it’s a necessity. As cybercriminals leverage AI, automation, and ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) to escalate their attacks, organizations must stay ahead of the curve with predictive threat intelligence.
For cybersecurity professionals looking to refine their risk management, SOC response, and patching prioritization, adopting EPSS is no longer optional—it’s essential. The future of cybersecurity belongs to those who can predict, adapt, and respond in real time.
To learn more about the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS), please visit the official EPSS page on FIRST.org: https://www.first.org/epss/
About the Author
Gary S. Miliefsky is a globally recognized cybersecurity expert, inventor, and entrepreneur with multiple issued and pending patents. He is the founder of Cyber Defense Magazine, a keynote speaker, and an advisor to government and Fortune 500 organizations. He is the author of the bestselling book Cybersecurity Simplified and the groundbreaking new book The AI Singularity: When Machines Dream of Dominion, which explores the future of AI, cybersecurity, and the existential questions facing humanity in an era of superintelligent machines. His work continues to shape the conversation around proactive cyber defense, risk management, and the responsible development of AI.
