Security a Top Concern During 2024 Election ‘Super-Cyle’
With an unprecedented ‘super-cycle’ of elections in 2024, almost half the world’s population will go to the polls before the year is out. According to a new report from Allianz Commercial, security is a concern in many territories, not only from the threat of localized unrest but because of the wider-reaching consequences of electoral outcomes on foreign policy, trade relations, and supply chains.
The headline election will be in the US in November, when a narrow result could inflame existing tensions. The European Parliament elections in June could also deepen divisions, if radical-right parties gain votes and seats. As unrest can now spread more quickly and widely, thanks in part to social media, financial costs from such events for companies and insurers are mounting. Economic and insured losses from just seven civil unrest incidents in recent years cost approximately US$13bn.
Technology’s Role in Spreading Misinformation
Technology and AI are enabling ever-more sophisticated and personalized platforms to spread misinformation, with deepfakes a particular area of concern.
Manipulated and falsified information is now the most severe short-term risk the world faces, according to the World Economic Forum. Its Global Risk Report says misinformation and disinformation could radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies, triggering civil unrest and confrontation, and deepening polarized views in societies where political opinion is entrenched.
A group of 20 tech companies, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, TikTok, IBM, Adobe, and Amazon, announced a commitment in February to adopt “reasonable precautions” to prevent the spread of AI misinformation ahead of this year’s elections. AI-generated deepfake content has already been used to interfere with the US election, when thousands of households received a fake robocall that used AI to mimic President Joe Biden in January, encouraging them not to vote in New Hampshire’s primary election. In February, a deepfake news report about a supposed assassination attempt on President Macron of France spread quickly online.
Kent Walker, Google’s president for global affairs, said in an interview that given the breakneck pace of AI development there was a danger of “micro-targeted” deepfakes being customized to influence small but potentially decisive parts of the electorate through some social media platforms.
Alongside deepfakes, there are concerns about the repurposing of existing imagery for disinformation purposes as well as convincingly crafted personalized emails or text messages. Where people feel a sense of grievance or perceived injustice, receiving compelling personalized communication could be the nudge they need to vote a certain way, or a motivation to take their frustration on to the streets.
Public disaffection with governments that have not heeded their concerns or demonstrably changed their lives for the better is driving mistrust and cynicism, which can be exploited by misinformation, undermining the legitimacy of governments and media sources. This mistrust can be stoked by populists for their own ends. There is also the additional danger that genuine evidence can in turn be dismissed as ‘fake’ by those acting in bad faith.
Multinational companies show increasing demand for political violence insurance
Political violence activity can impact businesses in many ways. Businesses need to protect their people and property with forward planning, such as ensuring safe and robust business continuity planning is in place in the event of an incident, increasing security, and reducing and relocating inventory if likely to be impacted by an event. Using scenario planning and tracking risks in areas key to their operations can raise businesses’ awareness of where political violence and civil unrest risks may be intensifying. Companies should also review whether their insurance policy covers the impact of risks such as strikes, riots, and civil commotion.
About the Author
Srdjan Todorovic is Head of Political Violence and Hostile Environment Solutions at Allianz Commercial, the center of expertise and global line of Allianz Group for insuring mid-sized businesses, large enterprises, and specialist risks. Allianz Commercial is present in over 200 countries and territories either through its own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. Srdjan can be reached online at [email protected] and at the company website, https://commercial.allianz.com
